The Information
We now have 5 months of information on barley exports to China because they resumed the trade with us.
Over current years, there has actually been a great deal of speak about how, as a country, we require to diversify our barley far from China (see here). This was necessary throughout the time when we lost China, however is it still as crucial?
Let’s recall at history.
The Australian barley trade was greatly concentrated on China for the middle part of the last years, with simply shy of 80% of our barley heading to China at one point. This was a substantial volume and a substantial dependence on one trading partner.
So, from the middle of 2020, we have not sent out any barley to China. Then, in 2023, 2 years prior to the pencilled-in end of the tariff, China opened to Australian products.
The very first chart listed below programs the Australian sell barley to China and the rest of the world. It was August when China was open to trade, and they rapidly began taking volume. Regardless of just having the ability to take volume for the last 5 months of the year, China took 30% of Australian barley exports for the fiscal year.
Chinese volumes increased considerably to strike severe levels in December. The 2nd chart reveals the marketplace share that China has actually ended up being.
In December, China took a tremendous 90% of all the Australian barley exported.
So China is back, and they are purchasing huge licks.
90% is a substantial volume for one specific nation to buy, specifically in December. If we look traditionally, December is typically our biggest month for exports.
Just in another month, January 2019, has China reached 90% of our total exports. While we had actually lost China, discovering brand-new markets was necessary; nevertheless, the barley will go to anywhere the very best rate is– which is plainly China.
I had a couple of bets with individuals that China would be our most significant purchaser right away after the tariff was gone. I believe the barley-based beverages might be on me. That’s if China hasn’t taken all the malt.
( AI-generated header image.)